Burnley vs. Southampton: Saints hope for positive start to vital run of games
By Marc Walker
Southampton make the trip north this weekend to face Burnley at Turf Moor as they enter a critical period in their Premier League season.
The Saints are currently 18th in the table and will need to battle for every point on offer if they are to get themselves out of trouble come the end of the season.
Therefore, arguably their most favourable run of fixtures of 2017/18 couldn’t have come at a better time. After facing Burnley, they play Stoke, Newcastle and West Ham in the next three, with a trip to Swansea due to be re-arranged due to Saints’ FA Cup progression.
Southampton have also recently experienced their best run of form of the season. Four wins, three draws and one loss from their last eight games in all competitions has seen them progress to an FA Cup quarter-final clash with Wigan and gain their first league win since November.
Saturday’s opponents Burnley had a brilliant start to the season and have stayed well within the Premier League’s top half ever since. However, they haven’t won a match since December and have lost six of their last 11 matches in all competitions.
When the two sides faced each other back in November, Sam Vokes’ late header saw Burnley take the win away from St. Mary’s and Southampton drop yet more points. Saints slipped to 13th following this result, and Burnley consolidated their place in the league’s top seven.
The difference in approach between the teams is clear to see, but both are having contrasting results for each side. Burnley’s direct style has seen them score only 21 Premier League goals to Southampton’s 28, but an impressive defensive record has seen them concede just 24 times. Southampton’s leaky defence has let in 40 goals so far.
Southampton could be without four first-team players for this Saturday. Maya Yoshida has been ruled out for around five weeks, whilst this weekend could also come too early for Charlie Austin, Steven Davis and Shane Long. Sofiane Boufal could return to Mauricio Pellegrino’s squad however.
Burnley could welcome back top scorer Chris Wood into Saturday’s matchday squad. Stephen Ward, Dean Marney and James Tarkowski could also be in contention, but Tom Heaton won’t be rushed back into action.
Next: Saints now face crucial month in bid for survival
Why Southampton will win
The Saints must take advantage of the recent increase in their own performance levels and the poor form of hosts Burnley.
They have managed to take two wins away from West Brom in league and cup, and have therefore proven their ability to grind out results. A win here would only add to the momentum going into the aforementioned run of winnable games.
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A win at Turf Moor is also fairly overdue, with a poor recent record there meaning the 2006/07 season was the last time Saints took three points away to Burnley.
Why Burnley will win
A good home record against Southampton and successful ways to frustrate the visitors possession football means that Burnley will be confident going into this one.
The Clarets home form is often so important to them, and after tough home fixtures against Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City, they face a Saints side with a contrasting amount of attacking quality and creativity.
This season’s top scorer Chris Wood will also provide a boost to their attacking threat if he returns to the matchday squad.
Predicted Line-ups
Burnley
Goalkeeper: Nick Pope
Defenders: Matt Lowton, Kevin Long, Ben Mee, Charlie Taylor
Midfielders: Aaron Lennon, Jeff Hendrick, Jack Cork, Johann Berg Gudmundsson
Strikers: Sam Vokes, Ashley Barnes
Southampton
Goalkeeper: Alex McCarthy
Defenders: Cedric Soares, Jack Stephens, Wesley Hoedt, Ryan Bertrand
Midfielders: James Ward-Prowse, Mario Lemina, Oriol Romeu, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Dusan Tadic
Striker: Guido Carrillo