Following Southampton’s narrow defeat to Cardiff last Saturday, the Gunners come to town on Sunday looking to capitalise on the South coast team’s current state of fragility.
As Ralph Hasenhuttl prepares for his first home game in charge at St Mary’s, it seems likely the charismatic Austrian manager will have his work cut out as he seeks to overturn a streak of 12 Premier League games without a win. By contrast, his counterpart Unai Emery will be keen to maintain his side’s recent momentum, which has seen the North London club propelled to 5th in the table, just 2 points shy of their bitter rivals, Tottenham who are sitting pretty in 3rd.
Free scoring Arsenal hold the second highest number of goals to their name, having already amassed 35 goals in just 16 games this season. However, their opponents Southampton have scored a paltry 13 league goals and based on their form to date, it seems unlikely that they will be outscoring Emery’s men, so ably led by Pierre Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette.
Why Southampton will win
Let’s be honest, this seems unlikely given the recent form of both clubs but nevertheless relegation candidates Southampton will strive to frustrate Arsenal and in doing so, aim to prove many of their critics wrong. To accomplish this, the coaching team will hope that the added intensity brought by Hasenhuttl’s training sessions, will allow them to capitalise on a weakened Arsenal defence.
The horrific injury suffered by the 23 year old defender Rob Holding at Old Trafford rules the young centre back out of contention, whilst Mustafi and Mavropanos are likely to also miss the game due to hamstring and groin injuries respectively. The Greek defender Sokratis misses out through suspension and the lack of available centre backs may see Arsenal opt to abandon the 3-4-3 formation they have used to great effect in recent weeks.
If the Saints can exploit the weaknesses caused by the Gunners fielding a makeshift back line and which is expected to include Laurent Koscielny on his long awaited return from injury, they may have a marginal chance of scoring enough goals to overcome their opponents. That being said, this could be a tall order for the Southampton players, especially given their profligacy in front of goal.
If Hasenhuttl is brave enough to field an attacking team, he may feel there are sufficient opportunities to run a half fit and ageing Arsenal defence ragged. Keeping faith with deploying Romeu and Hojbjerg in front of a fragile defence, whilst allowing Lemina, Armstrong and Redmond the freedom to support the striker could provide a platform for Southampton to prevail.
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Why Arsenal will win
Even the most ardent of Saints fans would be unlikely to bet against the North London side, especially in the rampant form Arsenal have been in since a 21 match unbeaten run started back in August. The appointment of the Spaniard, Unai Emery to succeed Arsene Wenger has led to a sense of resilience being installed in his players to accompany the silky football that the Gunners are renowned for.
Despite their defensive concerns, Arsenal will not be anticipating a tough test at St Mary’s, especially given Southampton’s propensity to concede soft goals late on in matches. Even if Arsenal go behind, they will be confident of success against a Southampton back line which has been shaky and lacking in organisation.
The Gabonese striker, Aubameyang has rightly attracted plaudits for his pace, positioning and ruthless finishing this season and given the flat footed performances given by the likes of Vestergaard and Hoedt in this campaign, the Premier League’s joint leading scorer will be relishing the opportunity to add to his tally.
Furthermore, the potential return of Ozil to the starting line up could add to Southampton’s worries as the German will undoubtedly seek to exploit the chasm of space inevitably left in front of the defence. Although the pace of Redmond could leave Arsenal exposed at the back, Emery will expect to see his team boosted by the return of the veteran Koscielny and he will hope that the French international’s experience will be a calming influence.
Predicted Lineups
Southampton: 4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper: McCarthy
Defenders: Cedric Soares, Stephens, Bednarek, Targett
Midfielders: Hojbjerg, Lemina, Romeu, Armstrong, Redmond
Forwards: Gabbiadini
Arsenal: 4-2-2-2
Goalkeeper: Leno
Defenders: Bellerin, Koscielny, Monreal, Kolasnic
Midfielders: Torreira, Xhaka, Ozil, Iwobi,
Forwards: Aubameyang, Lacazette
Score Prediction: Southampton 1-2 Arsenal