Southampton look set for another fight for survival in the Premier League this season as they find themselves in the bottom three with 12 games to go.
Last weekend’s 2-1 loss to Cardiff City saw them concede important ground that they had worked so hard to make up on their rivals under Ralph Hasenhuttl.
Saints had built a run of five league games unbeaten after draws against Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Burnley and victories over Leicester City and Everton.
Their record is remarkably similar to this stage last season. After 26 games, they had 26 points but found themselves in 15th place despite scoring the same amount of goals.
They currently sit 18th and on 24 points with 36 more to play for until May, so how many more results do they need to secure their top-flight status for another season?
The normal figure that teams look to get to is 40 points as that has always been enough to keep sides in the league. However, slightly less than that has been enough for survival in the last five Premier League campaigns.
Since the 2013/14 season, an average of 35.4 points has been enough for a team to finish 17th and avoid relegation.
This was 34 points in 2013/14, 36 in 2014/15, 38 in 2015/16, 35 in 2016/17 and 34 last season, although there was a three points gap between Saints in 17th and Swansea in 18th by the last day of the season.
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Whilst 40 should be aimed for if possible, 38 or 39 could certainly prove enough this season. For Saints, this could mean that four more wins and a couple of draws are still needed to get the extra 14-15 points they require.
Six home and six away games remain for Hasenhuttl and his men but these include some tough tests against some of the top-six.
A trip to Arsenal arrives in their next fixture on the 24th February whilst clashes with Manchester United and Spurs come in the first two weeks of March.
Liverpool are also welcomed to St Mary’s in April, but some very winnable clashes remain for Saints too.
They host Fulham on Wednesday the 27th February and will have an ideal opportunity to get a result, whilst away trips to Brighton and Newcastle also provide chances against direct rivals at the bottom of the table.
If Saints still find themselves in trouble in April and May – like last season – they will have to take full advantage of home games against Bournemouth and Huddersfield.
They have a good home record against the Cherries, whilst the Terriers could well be relegated long before the last day of the season.