Southampton vs Bournemouth: Premier League – Preview and Predictions

Southampton face their third opponent in three days as they face Bournemouth at St. Marys on Saturday afternoon. 

With three games remaining, Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side know that victory against the Cherries will all but guarantee Premier League survival for another year, with a superior goal difference over Cardiff almost impossible to be overturned even if the Blue Birds finish the season level on points with Southampton.

Three points for the home side will also put them just a point behind the weekends visitors with just two games left to play.

The Cherries have once again been the feel good factor of the league. Although they find themselves just fourteenth in the league, their ability attract players with such a small ground in comparison to the rest of the league and play such attractive football at a high level gives hope to fans across the country that their team could have a chance of making it to the big leagues with the right structure in place.

The upcoming game is likely to be one for the neutral, with both sides adopting rather attacking systems with the armoury to suit. There is a chance that this could be a boring affair, with the seasons earlier fixture ending as a goalless draw, but with survival on the table for the Saints, expect anything but.

Both teams have seemed to be quite inconsistent recently, but with clear quality in the ranks, the tie could go either way.

Why Southampton Will Win

St.Marys has been turned into some what of a fortress in recent times, with the Saints most recent loss against a team outside the top two last being on the 9th February.

Despite conceding late on at Vicarage Road, Hasenhuttl would have been impressed by his sides response to their lacklustre defeat against Newcastle . Away at Watford, Southampton hit the post twice in the first half, with the fingertips of Ben Foster also denying Nathan Redmond on multiple occasions. Both the Southampton fans and players will feel encouraged by their performance, especially due to the quality of performances by Stuart Armstrong and Jack Stephens (players that have struggled for starts this season), and will be looking to go one step further and capture all three points this Saturday.

In addition to this, there is a high chance that the Saints will be boosted by the full return of Yan Valery, with the Frenchman getting twelve minutes off the bench on Tuesday night. Combined with this, it will allow James Ward-Prowse to move out of the right wing back role and play in a much more advanced midfield role where he is much more stronger suited.

Despite their inconsistencies of the entirety of the season, the Saints also hold their own when considering attacking talent. Irish international Shane Long has been in good form recently, scoring three goals in his last four games (two starts) – including one inside 7.69 seconds in Southampton’s most recent Premier League game against Watford (a division record). Nathan Redmond has also came into his own recently. Under Ralph Hasenhuttl, the winger has scored eight times in all competitions under the new manager – having failed to contribute at all under Hughes during the 2018/19 campaign.

The Cherries current league position could also play a role in the outcome of the fixture. Eddie Howe’s side has reached the forty point mark this season and have guaranteed another season in the premier league. As a result, there is a chance that they could take their foot off the gas with nothing really to play for.

Combined with this, Bournemouth have never beaten the Saints in a competitive fixture in the entirety of their history when playing on Southampton soil – with all their wins coming at home.

From a Southampton point of view, there is a hope of deja vu from the previous fixture – with last years 2-1 home win coming one day less than a year prior to the one upcoming.

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• It’s time to talk about Gavin Bazunu
• Rain clouds on the horizon? Southampton beat Plymouth Argyle
• A lament for Southampton legend James Ward-Prowse

Why Bournemouth Will Win 

Bournemouth have performed well away from home recently, with their last performance on the road being a ruthless 5-0 victory against relegation threatened Brighton. This will give Eddie Howe and his players belief that they could get something against Southampton and end their barren run at St. Marys.

As said previously, it could be a case of the Cherries already ‘being on the beach’ knowing that Premier League football awaits next season, but if last season is anything to go by, it is unlikely. At the end of the 2017/18 campaign, Bournemouth ended off the season with two wins in their last three, with the squad wanting to improve their final point tally year on year. This seasons point tally of forty one is just three points behind the forty three that they ended last season on, so will be determined to go out and prove a point.

With survival guaranteed, Bournemouth have the freedom to once again set up an attacking system and play with freedom knowing that a loss would not be at detriment to their season.

Bournemouth’s strike partnership has had many a team tremble in their boots this season, with both strikers in hot form. Callum Wilson and Joshua King have scored twenty three premier league goals between them, and are likely to start up front together once again. In addition, Ryan Fraser, who has caught the eye of Arsenal in recent times (The Mirror), has had a hand in 19 top flight goals this season. The Scottish winger has scored seven, but also laid off twelve – the equal second highest in the entire division. The pace of the Cherries is almost guaranteed to be a problem to the Saints back line, with a whole host of Southampton’s most recent goals conceded coming from counter attacks after corners or mistakes by the red and whites backline and midfield.

Looking over at Southampton’s tendency to concede late goals this season, the Cherries will know that if they are behind or level with ten minute to go, if they compile the pressure, there is a high chance they will be able to expose Southampton’s vulnerabilities.

This is compounded by the possible injury of Ryan Bertrand, with Matthew Targett the only natural left wing back available in the squad.

Predicted Line-ups

Southampton: 3-4-2-1

Goalkeeper: Angus Guun

Defenders: Jan Bednarek, Maya Yoshida, Jack Stephens

Midfielders: Yan Valery, Oriol Romeu, Pierre-Emile Hojberg, Ryan Bertrand

Attacking Midfielders: James Ward-Prowse, Nathan Redmond

Striker: Shane Long

Bournemouth: 4-2-2-2

Goalkeeper: Artur Boruc

Defenders: Nathan Ake, Steve Cook, Chris Mepham, Jack Simpson

Defensive Midfielders: Jefferson Lerma, Dan Gosling

Attacking Midfielders: Ryan Fraser, David Brooks

Strikers: Callum Wilson, Joshua King

Predicted Score: Southampton 2-1 Bournemouth