Southampton: Will Saints Deploy Three at the Back This Season?

Southampton currently sit 4th in the Premier League table, but would a switch to three central defenders take them to new heights?

Ralph Hasenhuttl has pushed his Saints side to the next level with a brilliant start to the 2020-21 Premier League campaign.  The Austrian’s 4-2-2-2 pressing system and the players’ dedication to run and work are the reasons for success.  West Brom, Everton, Aston Villa, and Newcastle were handily outplayed and were punished for mistakes inside their own defensive thirds.  The opponents’ errors a clear result of tactical goals set for the manager’s well-oiled machine.

So an honest argument to this piece’s exploratory question is, why would one ever change what’s working?

Mohammed Salisu’s imminent debut is a prominent solution.  The 13 million pound transfer from Real Valladolid was Southampton’s centre-piece summer signing and Ralph Hasenhuttl has stated he is the exact type of player the Saints need.  A 21 year old, six foot three, athletic centre-back does provide great motivation for first team regulars.  However, it would appear Salisu was brought in to be an every week starter, once achieving Hasenhuttl’s seal of approval.  A blessing which has been mostly delayed due to an injury the player arrived with at Staplewood.

With Salisu nearing full fitness and Southampton presently earning a Champions League place (had to say it), how realistic is it for the Ghanian to unseat the two Jan’s at centre-back?

Jan Bednarek is a staple of Hasenhuttl’s system and may be the third name on every team sheet.  Cue mental image of Ralph writing starting lineup in permanent ink while talking to self with a thick Austrian accent, Ingsy… Prowsey… Janny? The Polish centre-back has started nearly every match with Hasenhuttl at the helm and although he was off to a slow start in 2020-21, Bednarek continues to impress as one of the most impactful centre-backs in the league. Currently he sits in the top 20 for both interceptions and clearances by any Premier League player.

Jannik Vestergaard would have been the easy solution to our dilemma had he not turned his popularity around faster than Jack Stephens. Actually, the Danish centre-back has been the Jack Stephens of this season.  Oh yes, remember Stephens, and how important the Plymouth rock was to our success just a few months ago?  Vestergaard has performed so well he has leap-frogged Stephens in the pecking-order and for many fans has become a figure of future folklore for his viking-esque 6’6″ stature and disgusting diaganols.

Not to mention, Vestergaard’s forehead is a Titanic target for a James Ward-Prowse free kick.

Vestergaard has become a weapon on set pieces, a calm presence at the back, and a true revelation story after months of fan abuse following the Cardiff calamity.  His mistake-prone label has finally dissipated, he is playing more confidently than ever and after deciding to not leave for Leicester, he has totally won over the faith of his manager.  Many will forget, the original Hasenhuttl pairing was Bendarek and Vestergaard, before errors zapped his confidence.

Jack Stephens cannot be a forgotten man.  He appeared unfit like many of his comrades following the shortened preseason and ultimately lost his place, but what he did for the team in 2019-20 was remarkable.  His contract remains through 2022 and there were reports in September of an extension which appear yet to be confirmed.  Fans have finally looked passed Stephens’ flaws in jumping, pace and friendship with Charlie Austin and have seen a player dedicated to the cause.  Stephens’ performances were critical to Southampton’s project restart form and those moments should not and will not be forgotten, earning him the deepest respect throughout the club, but most importantly with his manager Hasenhuttl.

So here we sit with 4 first team centre-backs and a 2 centre-back formation.  Hasenhuttl has routinely remarked, two players are needed at each position and if our math is right 2 + 2 = 4.  However, with arguably the team’s best depth at the centre-back position and a crowded fixture list ahead, wouldn’t it make sense for Hasenhuttl to at least tinker with the idea of offering a similar solution to his tried and true 4-2-2-2?

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A 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 with identical pressing tactics makes sense.  In fact, it may not be all the different from the present system.

Hasenhuttl’s 4-2-2-2 shape always leaves three at the back.  Going forward, one of the wing backs typically holds unless the timing is perfectly right for both to spring on the attack.  In this instance, either Oriol Romeu or James Ward-Prowse drop into the back line to cover, which is familiar for the centre-mids as they do this job in possession whenever the wing backs get high and wide.  Therefore, Southampton may start as a 4-2-2-2, although the fluidity of football and Hasenhuttl’s formation leaves three players in the back at any given moment while defending above the defensive third.

Most importantly, playing three centre-backs will free up pressing for the front seven.  Specifically, the centre-mids will earn some freedom of responsibility, particularly the demand in awareness of when to drop back and cover.  Of course this is engrained in both Romeu and JWP roles’ as pivots, but they have so much fun defending forward.  It is not coincidence both players are amongst the league leaders in tackles (Romeu #2 with 31) and will still be upon season’s end.  They are the leaders of the pack, it terms of ball recovery, and hunting what’s in front of you is a lot easier when you don’t have to constantly worry what is behind.

Secondly, Ryan Bertrand and Kyle Walker-Peters are already such critical points of attack.  Their width, ability to overlap, and in the future, willingness to come inside with the attacking midfielders make for zonal defending nightmares.  We all know when Bertrand and Nathan Redmond are clicking, they are so very dangerous.  Kyle Walker-Peters has done nothing but impress since arriving from Tottenham, and is one of the best 1v1 attacking backs in the league.  Adding this dimension to an attack makes even more sense when you have personnel at wing-back who love, and I mean love to get forward.

The final piece to the puzzle would pose the question, what position loses out?  Naturally a winger would be removed, meaning a 3-5-2 would be the more likely fit.  In a fully fit side Stuart Armstrong would take the #10 role underneath Danny Ings and Che Adams, leaving Nathan Redmond, Theo Walcott, and Moussa Djenepo out (unless you played one at wing back).  Yes, this does remove some creativity, but Bertrand and Walker-Peters are not typical wing-backs and would do well in a more attacking role.  Football also has this option to substitute which would allow the team to pull a centre-back off and replace him with a winger returning to the original 4-2-2-2 shape at any moment.  Although, Ralph would probably leave this until the 83rd minute.

If we all agree Hasenhuttl’s Southampton play a pressing system, three at the back enhances the team’s ability to apply the manager’s tactics.  Identical concepts from the 4-2-2-2 can be applied and arguably enhanced when coverage by three centre-backs remains constant.  This does not mean an abandonment of the current shape, but an alternative look for opponents who are getting more and more video of our tactics.

Mourinho, Pep, Klopp, Rodgers, and our next opponent Wolves’ and Espirito Santo will exploit the holes and find the moments to break us down over time.  One has to imagine Hasenhuttl would love to play chess with the top tier managers and deploy a different shape to disrupt his opponents’ week or more of match-planning.  Could you imagine if we arrived at Wolves with an identical shape to their own?

Deception and differentiation plays a large part in football success from a tactical standpoint.  Presently, Southampton approach is different than 90% of their opponents, therefore teams are having trouble adjusting to the intense ball-recovery style.  It is yet to be proven whether or not Hasenhuttl’s tactics will work in the Premier League over the long term, albeit being off to a great start.  Once clubs obtain detailed looks at the Saints’ system, it is quite possible a change in some form would need to be made.

With a new centre-back waiting in the wings, depth at the position, outside backs who love to attack, and the demand to differentiate, playing three at the back may be a formation Southampton deploy for matchup base purposes before the New Year.  Here’s just hoping this wasn’t an ace up the King of the Alps sleeve!