Who Stays and Who Goes: Predicting the Southampton Lineup in the Championship

Southampton finally have been officially relegated from the Premier League. What has felt like an inevitability since January has been confirmed, the relegation band-aid has been ripped off.

Now the focus shifts to returning to the Premiership. The Saints’ roster will undoubtedly look much different next season as they struggle in the Championship for the first time since 2011. Rumours have already been swirling around several key players, and more are certain to exit in the coming off-season.

The upcoming decisions made by Sport Republic, Dragan Solak, and the rest of the Southampton board will be critical as they fill out the squad, backroom staff, and manager for what will hopefully be a short spell in England’s 2nd tier. Here is our best prediction as to what the team will look like on the pitch in 2023-2024. Positions are based on where players primarily played this season.

Goalkeeper — 2022 Notables: Gavin Bazunu and Alex McCarthy

Goalkeeping was an issue for the Saints this season. The combination of Gavin Bazunu and Alex McCarthy (with a brief cameo from Willy Caballero) combined for just six clean sheets in forty-five appearances across all competitions.

Conceding goals is not just a goalkeeper issue but dig deeper into the advanced statistics and the story becomes uglier. Post shot expected goals minus goals allowed (PSxG +/-) is a statistic that attempts to quantify the goalkeeper’s chance of saving a shot, then subtracts the actual goals that the goalkeeper allowed. A higher number indicates a goalkeeper is saving more difficult shots, a lower one that they are allowing softer goals. While it is an imperfect metric, Gavin Bazunu’s was -16.6, good for worst in Premier League. For comparison, former Saint Frasier Forster clocked in at a -1.6. Goalkeeping will have to improve if the Saints want to win promotion, which is why the best player for Southampton next season is…

Likely Starter: Gavin Bazunu

While he had a disappointing debut season in the Premier League, the 21-year-old showed several flashes of his immense potential. He is a capped international and was Portsmouth’s player of the season in League One (no matter how bad this season was at least we are still above Portsmouth). He even saved a penalty against Cristiano Ronaldo! Southampton’s best bet will be to keep the youngster and continue his development against lower-tier opposition, perhaps with an experienced deputy to provide some needed mentorship.

Likely Departures: Alex McCarthy

Centre Backs — 2022 Notables: Mohammed Salisu, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Jan Bednarek, Lyanco, Duje Ćaleta-Car

Centre-back will be a tricky position for the Saints brass to evaluate. While they were the 5th leakiest defense in the Premier League, conceding sixty-six goals, their central defenders at times were a real strength. Their free-fall towards the end of the season could’ve looked much worse without the last-ditch defending of Jan Bednarek and Armel Bella-Kotchap. Regular starter Mohammed Salisu disappeared for the last few months of the season amid reports of attitude issues as well as a recurring injury. He will likely move on from Southampton next season. The services of 21-year-old Armel Bella-Kotchap are also likely to be sought after by another top-division side.

Likely Starters: Lyanco and Jan Bednarek

Possibly Staying: Duje Ćaleta-Car

Call me naïve, but after returning from his loan, the much-maligned Bednarek deserves to be considered for Southampton’s best-performing player. He has brought much-needed passion and energy when his teammates collapsed around him, and without his effort some scorelines could’ve gotten ugly (seriously re-watch the Newcastle game – Bednarek stops at least 3 clear-cut chances by himself). He is in serious contention for the captaincy next season.

However, if Bednarek does stay on the South Coast, the Poland International has to improve his play with the ball. Rumored incoming manager Russell Martin prefers to play a high possession, play out the back system which is not suited to Bednarek’s strengths.

Ćaleta-Car is a poster child for the messy Southampton recruiting this season. Recruited to play in a deep-lying three at the back system for Nathan Jones, he did not have the pace to play in Rubén Sellés’ high defensive line. With the Saints reportedly set to move away from the high-pressing style of football espoused by Sellés and previously Ralph Hassenhüttl, the Croatian international should be given a chance to play in a system better suited to his strengths. However given his lack of playing time this season, he may force an exit.

Likely Departures: Mohammed Salisu, Armel Bella-Kotchap

Squad Depth: Jack Stephens, Dynel Simeu

Full Backs – 2022 Notables: Kyle Walker-Peters, Romain Perraud, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Juan Larios, Tino Livramento, James Bree

Kyle Walker-Peters has been an incredible servant for the Saints since arriving from Tottenham in 2019. Ever dependable down the right flank, he has been instrumental in their successes in the past few years. However, it would be negligent to absolve KWP completely of blame for Southampton’s relegation. He has only had one goal all season, and zero assists in 36 games. He will likely be snapped up by a Premiership side looking for wing-back depth. Similarly, Romain Perraud has shown himself to be Premier League quality, and is unlikely to stay for a Championship run.

Likely Starters: Tino Livramento and ????

Ainsley Maitland-Niles is the elephant in the room for Southampton. There is no doubt about his quality on the ball, but his defensive positioning and work rate have been questionable at best, and a detriment at worst. His contract is up at Arsenal, but the relationship with Southampton fans might be too far gone for Saints to offer the loanee a permanent deal.

Juan Larios showed glimpses of why Southampton brought him over from Manchester City, but injuries have stopped his progress. With his ability still a question mark, Southampton would do well to bring in outside reinforcements in the transfer market to strengthen themselves at left-back.

Likely Departures: Kyle Walker-Peters, Romain Perraud, Ainsley Maitland-Niles

Squad Depth: James Bree, Juan Larios

It is hard not to feel for James Bree. Brought in from Luton by Nathan Jones, he was then cast out of first-team football after Jones’ sacking. He earned himself a few starts after Southampton’s relegation was confirmed, possibly as a short tryout for his position next season. But now he has to play in the Championship for the Saints as his former Luton side will be playing Premier League football next season. He is a proven Championship right-back, and hopefully will bring some of Luton’s magic to Southampton’s promotion campaign.

Defensive Midfield – 2022 Notables: James Ward-Prowse, Roméo Lavia, Ibrahima Diallo

The worst part of the Saints’ relegation is the thought of Southampton legend James Ward-Prowse wearing another jersey. While he has not confirmed his status for next season, clubs have been circling around the set piece aficionado like vultures for several weeks. Ward-Prowse brings so much more than his trademark set-piece delivery: cover defensively, leadership, and a wide range of passing. He led Southampton in progressive passes by a wide margin: 189 to Roméo Lavia’s 102. Whoever lands the Southampton skipper will have a quality, dependable player who will add value to any side he is a part of.

Speaking of Lavia, he has also been a bright point in a dark season, consistently showing his quality on and off the ball. He will undoubtedly have suitors, however, will other teams match Southampton’s valuation of him? Will he be willing to take a reduced role on a big six Premier League team? Manchester City also possess a rumored £40 million buyback clause that kicks in in 2024. Will Saints try to hold the youngster for a year with the promise that he will return to City next season? The future of the Belgian wonderkid is one of the first questions Southampton must address in the coming off-season.

Likely Starters: Someone new

As much as Saints fans will hope that Ward-Prowse and Lavia will stay loyal to Southampton, odds are both will be playing elsewhere next season. Ibrahima Diallo has not shown enough quality on the ball to be given the starting job in a brutal Championship slog. The Saints should be active in the transfer market to strengthen this vital position.

Likely Departures: James Ward-Prowse,  Roméo Lavia

Squad Depth: Ibrahima Diallo, Kami Doyle

Winger/Attacking Midfield – 2022 Notables: Mohamed Elyounoussi, Adam Armstrong, Stuart Armstrong, Joe Aribo, Moussa Djenepo, Samuel Edozie, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Mislav Oršić

The amount of players who have made appearances in the number 10 role for the Saints this season is staggering. Southampton struggled to find a consistent attacking lineup, and the players’ performance on the pitch suffered as a result.

In theory, the players brought in were shrewd signings. Joe Aribo, fresh off scoring in a Europe League final, was brought in for £7 million. Mislav Oršić had been a prolific goal scorer for Dinamo Zagreb, terrorized Premier League clubs in European competitions, and scored a wonderstrike in the World Cup 3rd place match. He cost the Saints only £6 million. Kamaldeen Sulemana was made Southampton’s record signing in January for £25 million. A capped international with World Cup experience he, like the others, has failed to make an impact for the Saints. Aribo: 21 Premier League appearances, two goals no assists. Sulemana: 18 appearances, one assist, two goals (both in the meaningless final game against Liverpool).

Most notably, Mislav Oršić has earned himself just seven premier league minutes all season. He was poor in the cup games he featured in, but was only given a small chance to acclimate to Premier League speed before he was cast out. He reportedly is unhappy about his treatment at Saints, and reports have linked him with a move away.

Likely Starters: Adam Armstrong, Nathan Tella

Mention Adam Armstrong’s name to a Saints fan in the pub and you will have bought yourself a 10-minute tirade at least. Since his £18 million move from Blackburn Rovers, he has been a disappointment, scoring just five goals for the Saints. But Armstrong is just two seasons removed from scoring 28 goals in the Championship, and a return to 2nd tier football might be just what he needs to rejuvenate his confidence. Similarly, the Saints would do well to hold on to a player who is a proven scorer at the Championship level.

Nathan Tella was a revelation for Burnley, helping them reclaim their Premier League position, and scoring goals in bunches. The Saints should keep him on the South Coast and reject any advances Burnley will make, as they will require offensive firepower to replace the impending mass exodus of attacking players.

Likely Departures: Mohamed Elyounoussi, Joe Aribo, Stuart Armstrong, Mislav Oršić, Kamaldeen Sulemana

Southampton’s record signing Sulemana is still only 21 years old, and has plenty of football development ahead of him. Will he want to continue his development at Saints? And will Southampton be willing to part with their record signing for what will definitely be a smaller fee than what they paid? The Saints have a reputation for allowing young stars to go to bigger teams when they come knocking, but pragmatism might be needed to ensure a return to the top flight. In this case, it might benefit Sulemana to have a season in the Championship, and show some final third ruthlessness he was missing in the Premier League. He has stated he is willing to stay if another move does not materialize, but large clubs are circling.

Squad Depth: Samuel Edozie, Moussa Djenepo, Sam Amo-Ameyaw

Striker — 2022 Notables: Ché Adams, Sékou Mara, Theo Walcott, Carlos Alcaraz, Paul Onuachu

Ché Adams is a polarizing figure. A prolific goalscorer at Championship level, he is good for 8-12 Premier League goals a season. He can also be chalked down for double-digit big chances missed, as there are long stretches where he leaves his finishing boots in the locker room. But his work rate, hold up play, and progressive passing are something that Southampton have missed during his injury absences this season. Odds are Ché will be bought by another Premiership team looking for reinforcements up top.

Carlos Alcaraz is the one Southampton January signing who hit the ground running in the Premier League. He scored several memorable goals, most notably the winner against Leicester and the opener against Arsenal. He does have suitors to lure him away from the South Coast but the Saints should try to keep him around next season, as his final third ability will be needed.

Likely Starters: Someone new

The Saints are in need of a true out and out number nine. Tall Paul Onuachu is another player brought in to play under Nathan Jones who did not fit for Sellés. In a high pressing system, a slow footed 6’7 striker is always going to be an issue. The Saints also failed to adapt to Onuachu when he was on the pitch, as aerial service in to him was poor. Onuachu could be a useful player in the Championship however, as teams will struggle with his size. But he once again finds himself not fitting an incoming manager, as his skill set does not match the possession based style of Russell Martin.

Dom Ballard and Sékou Mara are both young and full of promise, but neither have flourished at the senior level, and Southampton must win immediately to return to the top flight. The Saints will have money to spend after their war chest of Premiership quality players is raided. The Southampton brass have identified great talent, but struck out with strikers in recent years (remember when we were linked with Cody Gakpo and Gonçalo Ramos…better times).  A known Championship level striker should be a priority with that incoming cash.

Likely Departures: Theo Walcott, Ché Adams, Carlos Alcaraz

Squad Depth: Dom Ballard, Paul Onuachu, Sékou Mara

Manager: Rubén Sellés

Likely Replacement: Russell Martin

Rubén Sellés inherited a disorganized team in freefall after the ill-fated Nathan Jones era. For a brief moment he gave them much needed stability. But his new manager bounce was short lived. In their last eleven games Southampton have not produced a single win. While at times they have looked impressive, they have also looked flat and disorganized for long periods. Sellés’ character and spirit cannot be questioned, and he has done a decent job in a desperate situation. But with Southampton rumored to be in the mix for Swansea’s Russell Martin, Sellés will not be on the Southampton staff next season, as he has said he will not remain a Saint if he is not the manager.