Southampton face a big test at St Mary’s this Saturday. Hull City’s attack is direct and physical. That was something that the Saints' defence failed to cope with at the MKM Stadium in September.
At the centre of that threat is Oli McBurnie. McBurnie is strong in the air. and wins a very high percentage of his aerial duels. Statistics show he wins around 85 per cent of those challenges which is a huge figure at this level.
Quarshie has struggled where it matters
By contrast, Joshua Quarshie has struggled in similar situations. The German Under-21 international has won just 31 per cent of his aerial duels in the matches he has played in this season. That is a low number for a centre-half facing a target man like McBurnie. It would be a mismatch of epic proportions.
Winning duels in the air is essential when a forward receives long balls or flick-ons. McBurnie’s strength makes him dangerous every time the ball goes wide or into the box. Quarshie’s record suggests he will struggle to cope with that kind of threat.
Some people will argue that Quarshie should start because he has pace and can play out from the back. These are useful traits. Southampton likes to build play through their defenders, and Quarshie has shown that he is comfortable with the ball at his feet. But against Hull City this week, the battle in the air matters more than any of those qualities.
The player whose aerial record is terribly bad might shock you
It is also worth looking at the aerial records of the other centre-backs. Jack Stephens has won only 5 per cent of his aerial duels. That number is shockingly low for a player whose primary jobs include heading the ball away. It shows just how much Stephens can be beaten in the air.
For the same statistic, Nathan Wood sits on 31 per cent, which is almost identical to Quarshie. That may be better than Stephens, but still nowhere near the level needed to match a striker of McBurnie’s profile.
Hull will aim to get the ball up quickly and target McBurnie’s physical advantage again. They will use wide areas and second balls. Southampton cannot afford to lose those battles in their own penalty area.
Southampton need a centre-half who can stand up to McBurnie’s strength. Someone who wins headers and stops direct balls. Playing Quarshie against a striker with an 85 per cent success rate in aerial duels is asking too much. The team needs solidity at the back first.
This is not a criticism of Quarshie as a whole player. He has promise, and he can improve. But in this specific game, against this specific kind of forward, his aerial weakness is too big a concern. Southampton must choose wisely. The back line needs to be physically equipped for the challenge ahead. Saturday’s match demands it.