The permutations for the play-off places are wide-ranging, but the likelihood of certain outcomes over others simplifies things a little.
It's obvious who will go up automatically
Ipswich Town will beat a Queens Park Rangers side who have been freezing their you-know-whats off on the beach since February. That will secure them an automatic promotion place alongside Coventry City. Thankfully for Tonda Eckert's men, that removes the best remaining team in the promotion hunt from the equation.
Consequently, Millwall will finish third. They face a deflated and relegated Oxford United at The Den, meaning they will become the third-placed team.
This is where it gets interesting, for Saints at least. Fourth-placed Middlesbrough travel to Wrexham with a slim remaining hope of getting automatic promotion. That won't happen, of course, but it keeps them interested.
The most likely result is a draw, which will probably mean Boro pip Saints for fourth on goal difference or on the head-to-head results earlier in the season. A Wrexham win doesn't change the picture very much at all. Saints would still play Boro (assuming Saints win at Preston North End on the final day) but would play the second leg at St Mary's.
One match in North Wales could be pivotal
The Wrexham v Middlesbrough game could have implications should Southampton make it to the playoff final at Wembley.
A Wrexham defeat would probably see Hull City snatch the last remaining playoff spot. That's bad news for Southampton, who have been beaten by the Tigers twice this season.
But football, as Jimmy Greaves once said, is a 'funny old game.' What looks straightforward on paper rarely pans out that way at all. Manchester City, for example, wouldn't have expected to be 1-0 down to Southampton with ten minutes to go at Wembley last weekend, and nobody would have expected Saints to beat Arsenal in the quarter finals.
The most likely outcome is that Southampton will host Middlesbrough on Saturday, May 9 (12.30 pm) at St Mary's. The return leg will be on the following Tuesday night, May 12, at 8pm.
Position | Points | GD (predicted) | |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Coventry City | 93 | +48 (+48) |
2 | Ipswich Town | 84 | +30 (+33) |
3 | Millwall | 83 | +13 (+15) |
4 | Middlesbrough | 80 | +25 (+25) |
5 | Southampton | 80 | +24 (+25) |
6 | Hull City | 73 | +3 (+4) |
Daily Echo, reporter, Alfie House has looked at the other permutations.
If Saints win and only one of either Middlesbrough fail to win or Millwall lose, Saints will finish fourth and secure a home semi-final second leg.
They will travel away to whoever finishes fifth place on Saturday, May 9 (12.30pm), before hosting them at St Mary's on Tuesday, May 12 (8pm).
If Saints win and both Middlesbrough fail to win and Millwall lose, Saints will finish in third, and will earn a home second leg and a favourable draw.
They will travel away to whoever finishes in sixth place on Friday, May 8 (8pm), before hosting them at St Mary's on Monday, May 11 (8pm).
Championship final day fixtures - 12.30pm on Saturday, May 2
Predicted results:
Millwall vs Oxford United - 2:0
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough 1:1
Preston vs Southampton 1-2
Hull City vs Norwich City 2-1
Derby County vs Sheffield United 3-1
When is the Championship play-off final?
If Saints get there, they will visit Wembley Stadium for the Championship play-off final on Saturday, May 23. The kick-off time is to be confirmed.
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