After Monday night's events in South London, we now know that Hull City will feature in the EFL Championship play-off final, but who will join them at Wembley in 11 days time? In Saturday's first leg, Southampton and Middlesbrough played out a goalless draw at the Riverside, with Boro mightily frustrated not to establish an advantage, considering they mustered 17 shots to the Saints' six.
Despite this, most make Tonda Eckert's team favourites to progress by the South Coast on Tuesday night, especially considering their imperious home record against Boro.
Southampton's home record vs Middlesbrough (1966-present)
- Matches Played: 20.
- Southampton Wins: 10. Draws: 7. Middlesbrough Wins: 3.
Across the last 62 years, Boro have won only three of 20 visits to either the Dell or St Mary's, losing ten of them. The Saints are unbeaten in five at home in this fixture, dating back to 2003, including playing out a 1-1 draw all the way back in September. The now departed Adam Armstrong broke the deadlock that day, before Kaly Sène equalised late on. Both though have changed manager since.
Three of the last four meetings played anywhere between one of the most southern and most northern clubs in England have ended all square, but there must be a winner this time round. Southampton remain many people's favourites for promotion given their scintillating form in 2026. Since mid-January, Eckert's team accumulated 47 points out of a possible 57, not losing a single league game, also reaching the FA Cup semi-finals thanks to wins over Fulham and Arsenal.
However, the Saints were certainly not as impressive as that on Teeside at the weekend, but did earn a draw, thanks in no small part to Daniel Peretz's four saves. So, when the first leg ends in a draw, how often does a side finish the job at home in recent EFL Championship play-offs?
Championship play-off semis: when first leg is drawn (1998-present)
- Times First Leg is drawn: 19.
- Home Team Advances: 11. Away Team Advances: 8.
Across the last 28 years, drawing the first leg on the road is an advantage, but only a slender one. 19 first legs have been drawn, with 11 teams then winning the second leg at home, meaning that this happens only 58% of the time, lower than what one may first believe. Well, we've already seen this week that a draw away from home is no guarantee of success. Millwall and Hull's first clash on the banks of the Humber ended goalless, before the Tigers were 2-0 winners, silencing the Den, on Monday night.
Southampton themselves did earn a 0-0 at the The Hawthorns two seasons ago, before smashing West Bromwich Albion 4-0 by the South Coast five nights later. Thus, this coupled with their formidable home record against Boro should give the Saints faithful confidence of a famous night.
Add us as a preferred source on Google