West Brom vs. Southampton (FA Cup): Baggies host Saints in fifth round
Southampton make the journey back up to the Hawthorns for the second time in a fortnight to face West Brom on Saturday. This time it’s the FA Cup rather than the Premier League, but the team will be aiming to repeat their previous performance and come away with a win.
It is often proclaimed that an FA Cup run can galvanise a team and inspire improved league form. And as much as it’s easy to dismiss this as footballing rhetoric, born out of the romance of the ‘oldest club cup competition in the world’, Saints fans will be hoping there is an element of truth in there somewhere.
Currently languishing in 18th position, Southampton need to prove that their previous away victory against the same opposition wasn’t a false dawn. Following a somewhat lacklustre home defeat against Liverpool last weekend, the club need to get back to winning ways ahead of some key fixtures in the league.
Danger also lies in the fact that Wesley Hoedt and Jack Stephens are both one yellow card away from suspension. Should they both pick up a booking on Saturday, the defensive ranks will look very light against Burnley next weekend.
Meanwhile West Brom remain rock bottom of the standings, six points behind Southampton and seven from safety. Since our last meeting they have been soundly beaten by Chelsea, and have now conceded three goals in each of their last three fixtures.
And Chelsea really made it look easy, despite themselves suffering through a turbulent period at the moment. But unlike Bournemouth and Watford in recent weeks, the Baggies failed to capitalize on Chelsea’s current issues. The lack of fight at Stamford Bridge should certainly be a worry to Alan Pardew and the fans.
Next: Will the real leaders please stand up?
Why Southampton will win
Although this is true of many fixtures this season, Southampton have a better team on paper than their opponents this weekend. Saints also go into the match on better form (W2D2L1 vs W1D1L3), having conceded half the amount of goals in that time (6 vs 12).
Aside from Charlie Austin missing through long term injury, Pellegrino has a full-strength side to choose from. The manager has also had a week to prepare his team, so should have no excuses for not picking his best eleven.
Meanwhile West Brom are having to contend with controversy around ex-Saint Jay Rodriguez. The striker has been charged with racial abuse following an incident in last month’s match against Brighton. Although there is every chance he will make an appearance this weekend, whether he’s fully focused remains to be seen.
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Southampton need to build on their last trip to West Brom by starting positively. Considering their opponent’s form, the rest should follow.
Why West Brom will win
If Southampton need a win to inject some belief into the team, then West Brom need it doubly so.
Like the Saints, Alan Pardew’s men head into a series of must-win fixtures over the next few weeks. But recently they haven’t really looked like beating anyone. They need to prove to themselves and their fans that they have the steel to see through a win, and facing fellow strugglers at home in the cup sounds like a fine opportunity to do just that.
Like his counterpart, Pardew has nearly a full squad at his disposal, with only Belgian winger Nacer Chadli unavailable.
Coming up against recent opponents obviously has benefits for both teams. But facing Southampton at home after a narrow loss last time should give everyone at the club the ambition to throw themselves into Saturday’s match.
Predicted Lineups
Southampton:
Goalkeeper: Alex McCarthy
Defenders: Ryan Bertrand, Jack Stephens, Wesley Hoedt, Cedric Soares
Midfielders: Oriel Romeu, Mario Lemina, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, James Ward-Prowse, Sofiane Boufal,
Striker: Manolo Gabbiadini
West Brom:
Goalkeeper: Ben Foster
Defenders: Chris Brunt, Gareth McAuley, Ahmed Hegazi, Allan Nyom
Midfielders: James McClean, Sam Field, Grzegorz Krychowiak, Oliver Burke
Strikers: Salomón Rondón, Jay Rodriguez
Verdict: West Brom 1 – 2 Southampton
I’m going to go in positively and predict another victory by a fine margin for the Saints. Certain algorithms now predict that both these teams will be relegated from the Premier League this season. But hopefully Southampton will pick up a cup win here, then go on to defy the odds and survive the drop.
It certainly won’t be the first time.