Swansea City vs. Southampton: Win and stay up, lose and go down for Saints
Saints travel to the Liberty Stadium to face Swansea for their final away game on Tuesday night and games don’t really get much bigger than this in the Premier League. Not because of the calibre that the sides have but because of what’s at stake.
Swansea’s loss and Southampton’s draw last time out lifted Saints out of the bottom three and thus they were replaced by the Swans. Only goal difference separates the two sides (seven goals in our advantage) who are level on 33 points each.
In terms of form, the visitors are in much better stead ahead of this tie with four points, which should’ve been six due to poor refereeing, in their last two games (five in three as well). Swansea on the other hand have lost their last three outings, failing to score in any.
Why Southampton will win
The visitors’ form is upturning at exactly the right time. Fans were worried over the club’s fate after a draw at Leicester which seemed to be ‘not enough’, especially as Leicester were there for the taking, however that point has proven crucial as it has taken us out of the relegation zone. A vital win over Bournemouth was followed up by another great performance at Goodison Park, which should’ve been credited with three points if it hadn’t been for lazy refereeing allowing a late Everton goal.
Nathan Redmond’s form has picked up at the right time too, with the winger starting off Dusan Tadic’s first goal against Bournemouth as well as netting his first of the season against Everton on Saturday.
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Mark Hughes’ men are also scoring more goals, which is pleasing to see, with seven goals scored in Hughes’ five league games in charge thus far. Performances weren’t being credited with the results as the games against Arsenal and Chelsea deserved something but luck seems to have turned in our favour (if you forget about the John Moss’ horrendous refereeing on Saturday)!
The new five-at-the-back system is proving to be working as well, with Bertrand and Cedric finally having the freedom to make the runs fans have been waiting for that were banned under Pellegrino’s phony philosophy.
Two red cards has seen the need of slight tinkering to the three defenders; Maya Yoshida will miss out on Tuesday after two yellow cards. However, Jan Bednarek has stepped up massively since his introduction and will most likely lineup alongside Wesley Hoedt and the incoming Jack Stephens.
It has been well documented this season that Swansea are incredibly toothless in front of goal, with just 27 goals so far this season – the joint lowest in the division. Their top scorer Jordan Ayew has seven so he’s clearly the main man to look out for, whereas brother Andre, who rejoined the club in January from West Ham, is yet to find the back of the net.
They are also in poor form, losing their last three without scoring and picking up just three points in their last seven games, only scoring twice in the process.
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With a home game against champions Manchester City on the final of the season, the job really needs to be done in this game with a win, as Swansea host already relegated Stoke to the Liberty which will be a much easier contest.
Why Swansea will win
Even though they can’t score at the moment, Swansea’s defending isn’t dreadful and their home form under Carvalhal has been pretty good. Since the 52-year-old took the reigns in late December, he’s seen 13 points taken from seven games at the Liberty, including wins over Liverpool and Arsenal.
They will want to take advantage of having a home crowd behind them and take off the pressure ahead of the final day of the season by having the job sorted by then so that the game with already relegated Stoke is a bit more of a relaxed affair.
Even though Southampton are experiencing an upturn in performances and results, Swansea need the result just as much as they do (actually, that’s a lie as they can still lose and rely on Huddersfield)!
Predicted line-ups
Southampton:
Goalkeeper – Alex McCarthy
Defenders – Jan Bednarek, Jack Stephens, Wesley Hoedt
Midfielders – Cedric Soares, Oriol Romeu, Pierre Hojbjerg, Ryan Bertrand
Attackers – Dusan Tadic, Charlie Austin, Nathan Redmond
Swansea
Goalkeeper – Lukas Fabianski
Defenders – Alfie Mawson, Federico Fernandez, Mark van der Hoorn
Midfielders – Marcus Olsson, Tom Carroll, Ki Sung-Yeun, Connor Roberts, Nathan Dyer
Attackers – Jordan Ayew, Andre Ayew
Verdict
Swansea 0-1 Southampton