Southampton's record in the Championship has been very good. Since the Premier League's formation in 1992-92, the South Coast club has spent just seven seasons (including the current one) in the second tier of English football.
As things stand, the club might be expecting to remain in the division for a second consecutive campaign, although with Southampton still only seven points behind Wrexham in sixth place, some fans are clinging to slim hopes of a play-off place.
However, rule 1 of the guidebook on how to get promoted (if there were such a thing) is don't sell your top scorer in the January transfer window!
The sale of Adam Armstrong makes little sense
The sale of Adam Armstrong at this stage of the season makes little sense for a club chasing promotion, although it does make sense from a financial point of view.
The question now is, can Southampton score the goals they need to get into the top six? Based on records of past strikers, the leading goal scorer needs to be chipping in roughly a goal every two games.
In the two seasons the club has been promoted from the Championship, the leading scorer has maintained a goals-per-game ratio (GPG) above, or close to, 0.5.
Selected players - Goals per game averages in the Championship since 2000
Name | Season | Goals | GPG |
|---|---|---|---|
Rickie Lambert | 2011/12 | 27 | 0.64 |
Adam Armstrong | 2023/24 | 24 | 0.49 |
Adam Armstrong | 2025/26 | 11 | 0.38 |
Finn Azaz | 2025/26 | 7 | 0.27 |
Adam Lallana | 2011/12 | 11 | 0.26 |
David McGoldrick | 2008/09 | 12 | 0.26 |
Ross Stewart | 2025/26 | 3 | 0.23 |
Bradley Wright-Phillips | 2007/08 | 8 | 0.21 |
Leo Scienza | 2025/26 | 5 | 0.21 |
In 2011/12, Rickie Lambert (Southampton's goal machine) netted 27 times, boasting a GPG ratio of 0.64. That was still only enough to help Southampton into the second automatic promotion place.
In addition to Lambert's tally, Southampton still required Adam Lallana to chip in with 11 goals to secure promotion. Lallana's GPG of 0.26 places him above both Ross Stewart and Léo Scienza this season so far.
Adam Armstrong's 2023/24 GPG ratio (0.49) is not quite as impressive as Lambert's 2011/12 haul, but it was still enough to help earn the Saints promotion via the play-offs.
Where are the goals going to come from?
Based on these numbers, either Ross Stewart or new signing Cyle Larin (or a combination of both) would need to be scoring at a rate above 0.5 to be in with a chance of top six.
The alternative is that Southampton's impressive trio of attacking midfielders regain their scoring form from earlier in the season.
The responsibility of scoring the goals required will now fall to Ross Stewart, and if he stays fit, there's every chance that he can shoulder that burden.
Ross Stewart is actually a brilliant centre forward isn’t he, it’s just such a shame he’s so broken #saintsfc
— 🔴⚪️ (@AJPfx_) February 1, 2026
Stewart's three goals this season have come either side of another lengthy hamstring injury. Against Sheffield United, he scored a brilliant brace before sustaining the injury at Derby County five days later.
Scoring at home against Hull City has given the Scotsman some confidence, but his injury record does not inspire hope.
The signing of Cyle Larin, in that context, makes perfect sense. Whether either can get close to enough goals is yet to be determined.