There's no denying the difference that Tonda Eckert has made at Southampton in his short time as interim and then permanent Head Coach.
Eckert has taken the Saints from flirting with the relegation zone to promotion contenders in just nine games at the wheel.
Six wins and one draw in nine games is automatic promotion (if not title winning) form and Eckert has the contribution of his front three to thank for Saints meteoric rise up the Championship table.
Defeat at Norwich and a home draw against the league leaders Coventry have taken the shine off things recently and momentum has begun to slow down.
Southampton's barren spell should come as no surprise
More concerning than anything has been the drying up of goals from the front three of Adam Armstrong, Finn Azaz, and Léo Scienza. The three of them have not scored for two games and Saints have been forced to rely on defenders for their goals.
Ryan Manning popped up with a spectacular equaliser at Norwich but even that wasn't enough to grab a scrappy point at Carrow Road. Fortunately, Nathan Wood's headed equaliser at home to Coventry on Saturday was enough to secure a point for the Saints against the league leaders but players and fans left St Mary's knowing that two points had been dropped.
If Southampton fans are concerned about the front three starting to misfire, they really shouldn't be. Under Eckert, the Saints trio have massively over-performed compared to expected goals (xG). In fact, the whole team has.
And if that isn't enough to have Will Still choking on his gingerbread hot chocolate and whipped cream this Christmas, the whole team has been over-performing on xG. Under Still, Southampton's xG average in the Championship was 1.68 per game but the team could only muster 1.08 goals per game on average.
Under Eckert, the xG per game average has risen only slightly to 1.8. But, the difference is that now, goals seem to be flying in from all over the place. The Saints' average tally since the German took charge has increased to 2.56 goals per game.
xG (Still) | Actual (Still) | xG (Eckert) | Actual (Eckert) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adam Armstrong | 6.0 | 4 | 6.3 | 7 |
Finn Azaz | 0.6 | 0 | 3.6 | 6 |
Leo Scienza | 0.8 | 1 | 2.0 | 3 |
Whole Team | 21.9 | 14 | 17 | 23 |
Averages | 1.68 | 1.08 | 1.8 | 2.56 |
Saints' strikers have been over-performing for weeks
In a nutshell, Southampton are now shooting with greater accuracy and scoring more goals than they would be expected to, according to xG. Lots more! The reason for that is anybody's guess. They might have greater confidence than under Still. They may have just got lucky.
Adam Armstrong has been the most consistently in line with xG since Eckert took up the reins. The division's top scorer has scored 7 goals in Eckert's 9 games in charge, slightly above his 6.3 xG. Had Armstrong converted the penalty that he missed at Norwich, he would have been well above his xG.
Finn Azaz, on the other hand, has been hugely over-performing his 3.6 xG since the German stepped up from Under-21 boss. Azaz has grabbed himself 6 goals. All six of those came in a five game run.
But Azaz hasn't scored for three games and he hasn't looked like scoring either. Despite having five shots in total against Norwich and Coventry, only one has been on target and that was a tame shot, easily saved.
Léo Scienza's worldie against Queens Park Rangers is the difference between him over-performing his 2 xG by a single goal under Eckert.
Saints fans shouldn't be surprised that the goals have dried up lately. The xG number is a statistic drawn from big data. Over time, players usually find that they score goals broadly in line with what is expected.
The Saints strikers hit a purple patch and that's all. Saints fans will hope that they can keep it going.